A couple of months ago, I was vacationing with my family at the Club Med in Cancun when I got to know an affable Frenchman, Michel, a former school teacher who now was pursuing the good life. He maintained a home in Paris and a pied a terre on the Mediterranean coast, and he took two long (by American standards) vacations every year. He'd visited most of the Club Meds between the Maldives and the Turks & Caicos islands.Although Michel was about my age, give or take a year, he was retired already. I figure I'll be working full time at least 10 more years, until I'm 66 or 67, and even then, I'll likely work on and off on projects of my choosing. It's my sense that Michel and I are fairly representative of the Baby Boomer generations of our respective countries. We have very different expectations about what retirement means and of the obligation of the state to meet those expectations.
Here in America, the ambition of the Silent Generation (those born between 1926 and 1945) was very much like that of the Europeans -- to retire as early as possible with enough money to travel the world, have a house on the beach, sail boats, play golf or pursue their personal interests. To both the Europeans and the Silent Gens, retirement marked a dramatic life transition: a move from the world of work to the world of leisure.
There is widespread recognition in both Europe and the U.S. that the dream is unaffordable. Yet it has been difficult both here and there to reform the pension and health care systems. Working through their lobby, the AARP, the Silent Gens in the U.S. have stridently opposed efforts to dial back their retirement privileges. Indeed, during the Bush administration, they succeeded in winning an expansion of the Medicare program that will cost trillions of dollars over the next half century.
But the Baby Boomers may be a different story. While Boomers still look to government for Social Security and health care benefits in their old age -- they've paid into the system, by George, and they want to get something out of it -- they aren't dogmatic about retiring early. Boomers, as a generation, have found meaning in life largely through their work. Their identities are tied up in their jobs. Surveys have found that a majority of Boomers see work as a way to stay mentally engaged, remain connected to other people and otherwise retain their vitality.
Boomers are redefining the work/retirement transition from an all-or-nothing proposition to an opportunity to re-set the work-life balance. In a survey conducted by the Age Wave consulting firm, "Retirement at the Tipping Point," only 30% of Boomers said they saw themselves never working again. Forty-three percent said they expected to go back and forth between periods of work and leisure, while 22% said they probably would work part time. Many Boomers fantasize about starting a new business, often based around a personal interest, or about applying their skills for a worthy cause.
This new Boomer attitude is a very good thing. For starters, Boomers have failed miserably as a generation to save for their retirement. They'll need the money. What I find most reassuring, though, is that they aren't looking to the Big Daddy in Washington, D.C. to bail them out. Americans know they screwed up by failing to save. They also suspect that Big Daddy may not be able to afford to maintain Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security at current levels in face of the retirement tsunami.
Boomers will have to save more (which means spending less) and they'll have to work longer, if they want to enjoy a secure and comfortable lifestyle in their old age. When the federal government faces insolvency 20 or 30 years from now, Boomers will have no choice but to fall back upon their own resources. They had better start preparing now. They appear to be doing so.
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Wasn't it The Boomers who over-borrowed to create the mortgage and credit crises? I take it you think this new attitude (circa September, 2008) is a lasting change. I am not so sure. If the asumptions in the Obama budget came true (unlikely in my opinion) than I wonder if this new fiscal responsibility will hold. I watched the change in attitude as gas prices went from $1 / gallon to $4+ per gallon and now back to $2/gallon. The "Green Revolution" seems to be getting a lot less attention these days. America seems to move from crisis to crisis. The crises rarely get solved, they just get replaced by a newer, bigger, more urgent crisis.
ReplyDeleteThe next crisis will be inflation. We will have a period of modest economic recovery followed by a very substantial inflation. Think 10 - 15% per year at a minimum. Since Obama wants to reduce the deficit you can expect the Fed to do essentially nothing right up to 10% inflation. Then they will try to intervene. Interest rates will, of course, skyrocket along with inflation. Who would lend money at 6% when inflation is 12%. All of this will be because the stimulus was too big and the deficit too large. President Obama is already trying to lay the foundation for blaming the credit card companies and the average American. But the credit card companies didn't force the government to spend beyind its means. And the average American didn't individually demand that government spending jump while taxes are cut. No - that was our elected officials. From Bush to Obama from the Republican controlled Congress to the Democrat controlled Congress. Obama inherited a mess but Congress passes the laws. And he was right there in the Senate as the crisis built.
The best reason to keep working might be to get inflation adjusted COLA raises.
Groveton, you raise a really good question, and I don't think the evidence is in yet to provide a definitive answer: Have Boomers truly mended their spend-and-borrow ways? Or is their new-found frugality simply a consequence of tighter lending standards?
ReplyDeleteI subscribe to the body of thought that the economic crisis has shocked Boomers into rethinking their ways. Surveys of consumer sentiment repeatedly find that Boomers (and Gen Xers and Gen Ys) say they are spending less, paying down debt and saving more. In the case of the Boomers, they realize that, holy ****, they're running out of time to save for retirement. They've got to get serious!
I'm thinking of a Boomer couple I know that had three cars and sold one, figuring they'd do just fine with two. The husband sold his Rolex watch -- decided he didn't need it anymore. They thought about it and realized they just didn't need so much stuff in their lives. I'm not saying that all Boomers are like them, but a good many are.
yes.. it pretty much defines the boomer generation.... they are opposed to paying more for health care plans and other money for the future... and instead spend it on late model cars, 4 bedroom homes with granite countertops and backyard pools and 2nd homes at the beach.
ReplyDeleteThey expect - a $150,000 in health care benefits from their 30K of contributions.
If the Government did what was necessary to slash the budget and cut spending to get us back to a balanced budget - it would not change the current lifestyles of the baby boomers.
They'd still retire and still expect "free" health care and social security because "they paid for it".
If we had a system - where you got back every penny that you put into it - with interest - and then the rest of the money would have strings attached i.e. required a one-to-one match with your assets... we'd see some different behaviors.
What's the best solution to the Government going broke?
It's easy. Only expect to get back what you paid into it - and nothing more.
for most people.. they are expecting "more" ... as an entitlement....
So why was the Frenchmen able to retire at such a "young" age while you still must work?
ReplyDeleteIs it because the French have a better retirement system?
Did he save more?
Does he receive a government pension for the rest of his life no matter what?
How about health care...who gets to pick up that tab....him or his countrymen?
RBV, If I'd been publishing the blog when I met Michel, I would have asked all those questions! I hope to get answers as I track the news and conduct more research.
ReplyDeleteHere's my sense: The French retirement system is much "better" than the American, in that the benefits are more generous. The question is whether that system is fiscally sustainable, and, if not, whether the French are willing to make the accomodations to make it sustainable.
Larry, based on your comments about Boomers, I'm guessing that you're a member of the Silent Generation!!
ReplyDeleteWell ... as a constant international traveler (I am in Brazil writing this) - I'll hazard a guess on the French question.
ReplyDeleteBut first - I must say that I remain mystified by the antagonism between America and France. It really is silly. France is a great place even if they have decided to manage their society differently than we manage ours.
Anyway - I think the French "semi socialist system" takes a lot more money from Frenchmen as they work than the American "semi capitalist system". Frenchmen pay more in taxes, pay more in VAT, pay more in super-taxes for things like petrol. Fundamentally, they keep less of what they make while they make it. However, the government funds things like health care and retirement. That's my guess why Michel has more than many Americans - the government took more from him and now he's getting it back.
Secondly, the French government is interventionalist by design. They don't have the same sense of property rights "uber alles" that exists in America. They also make society - wide decisions quickly. Everybody in France has a smart national insurance card. Sounds like Obama style socialism? Not so quick. France also has one of the world's most fully developed nuclear power infrastructures. Kind of a Republican thing - no? France is harder to predict or categorize than most Americans would like to believe.
I am guessing that France taxes the heck out of cars as well as petrol (aka gasoline). I am guessing that they heavily regulate development. All of this heavy government intervention results in (perhaps) less personal freedom but (perhaps) more societal predictability / stability. At least, that's my impression from having been there about 25 different times.
Now, before the Ringleaders of Republcan Rage start sounding off - France certainly has its problems. Their ageing population has all but required that France encourage more immigration. The immigrants are often Muslims from former colonies and the societal integration of those immigrants is going poorly. So, you hear of riots and burning cars in the Muslim centric suburbs of Paris. These problems have bred a political backlash best defined by the Jean-Marie Le Pen candidacy for president in 2002 (when he finished second althogh a very distant second). France is far from the homogeneous political environment that most Americans imagine.
So, at the end of a long winded post, I think Michel is probably benefitting from having lived in a fiscally conservative society. And ... yes, I did just write fiscally conservative. As in conserving the fiscal assets of the country.
Will the French experiment in quasi - socialism work? I doubt it, at least over the mid to long term. It's working now but demographics make fools of most plans. The work force in France is ageing and the birth rate is down. Immigrants (many of whom lack the good educational background of "native - born" Frenchmen) are being ushered into the country. There is a growing divide in both education and income in French society. In other words, France is becoming more like the United States while the United States is becoming more like France.
Michel's generation in France is like our parents' generation (the Silent Generation). Tell him to enjoy his dotage. I doubt the same benefits will be available to his children (or to ours for that matter).
LarryG -
ReplyDeleteI like your thinking! People should only expect to get out of the country what they put in. So, I'd like to "drop out" of the Federal retirement and health care systems. In return for repayment of all contributions I have made to various Federal programs (like social security) and in return for never having to pay another dime into those government-sponsored con jobs I'll write the US government a blanket indemnification for my retirement and health care costs.
Those who believe that Uncle Sam is an efficient and effective provider of retirement benefits and health care coverage may, of course, remain in the programs. But you are absolutely right. Everybody should get only what they have paid in and participation should be entirely optional.
As for me - I am going to appeal to the French. Let's be honest - they run better health care and retirment programs than the US government. I'll give them all the money I paid into the US system as a downpayment. Then I'll pay French taxes for retirement and health care. Once I retire I'll have to relocate to France. Of course, France has a number of overseas departments which are as French as Hawaii is American. I am particluarly fond of Guadalupe and Saint Barts. You can come visit whn you want. Just don't overstay the welcome. And if you get sick - it's cash on the barrel head. We French can't afford the liability of under-funded Americans getting sick on out tropical paradises.
re: "I'll write the US government a blanket indemnification for my retirement and health care costs."
ReplyDeleteright..you and all those folks who entrusted their money to Madoff...
how would we know that your "indemnification" would be worth the paper it was written on - later on?
that's the problem right now.
we've got all these folks that say - "let me take care of myself".. and then 30 years later when they need a 100K operation.. they're whining about the insurance company limiting "their" benefits....
JB - "Silent generation"?
would someone here accuse me of being "silent" ?
;-)
"silent generation" = boomer LITE = 1944
ReplyDeleteGroveton is wrong in his reasoning because at his advanced age today.. he probably forgets when he was a young whipper snapper who thought health insurance was a costly luxury and probably would not have paid for auto insurance either if he could have gotten away with it - as more than likely most of us would have done the same.
ReplyDeleteand that's the problem with our health care system.
It's true that your premiums when you are young will pay for others but it's just like auto insurance...
.. that's why they call it "insurance" Groveton.
so you pay into it.. and the basic concept is that insurance would be (ideally) revenue neutral (with a little extra for profit) over your lifetime.
You pay into it.. and some day you'll need it... and you pool your money with others so that if for some reason you use more.. it's available.. on the premise that for every one of you -needing more - there is another - who used less.
you seem to think that because you may have ended up needing less... that you did not need the insurance..and, in fact, it turned out to be "unfair" in your case.
but that's not the essential bargain with insurance to start with.
you're buying it - "in case" and if you turn out lucky - it means that others may not have been so lucky and need help.
the reason the government is involved is that if we let everyone decide that they won't need insurance when they are young.. they'll come crying to the govmint for help when they are old.
That's precisely and exactly the premise behind social security.
Not everyone will end up as successful as you - even folks who may have worked as hard as you - but if they did not save -they are even in a worse situation .. correction - the rest of us are in a worse situation.. because it is us that has to pay.
so your taxes right now are HIGHER than they might be because you are paying for those others that did not save....
the "solution" of not paying for them is not realistic... we know that.. right?
so ..they must be force to save - by taking it out of their paycheck before they have a chance to spend it all and then claim they have nothing left.
Is this "personal freedom"? Nope.
I have worked for the samecompany since I was 21 years old. My company required that I carry health insurance the whole time. They paid some, I paid some. The government has never been liable for my health.
ReplyDeleteWhen I say that I don't want government health insurance you think I hate insurance. Wrong! I hate the government. I'll buy my own insurance. As long as I am insured why is is any of the government's business? Oh yeah - I forgot - it's really a tax masquerading as insurance. Isn't that right Larry?
As far as people who "forgot" to save - has the government done an audit of their personal assets? It seems like they should be selling the second car before trying to bilk me. And as for inheritance from those who "forgot to save" - hell no! Anything they have left when they kick goes into the fund. Finally, they need to keep working and the government needs to take a high percentage of THEIR salary. But not mine Larry. You see I remembered to save. And I remembered to have health insurance.
ReplyDeleteOf course, if your real goal is to re-distribute wealth - then your plans (and BHO's plan) is right on track. Now, that's really the point isn't it Larry? You want the money I've earned. All this pap about people who forgot to save is just that - pap.
re: "As long as I am insured why is is any of the government's business?"
ReplyDeletewho decides if you are "insured" ...."adequately"?
this is the problem as I see it.. with social security.. and medicare...and the Govmint
why do we have forced social security instead of just having everyone pick up the expenses of those who did not save for retirement?
why do we pay the medical expenses of those who chose to buy a 300K house with granite countertops and no health insurance because it was "too expensive"?
my view is that ... if we agree that it is the role of government to not let people die of a treatable disease in an unheated mobile home...
that we.. as a government and a people don't like the idea of having folks dying from treatable illnesses or from unheated shelter...
the we..as a government.. need to step in .. when they were younger.. and working.. but chose to 'save' money to use for fancier cars and other things... and force them to set aside some of that income for needs that they would have later on - since the alternative is to take the money they need later on - from you.
This is what social security and medicare is.
and this is what Universal Health Care is.
Universal Health care does not take away your right to supplement the safety net no more than social security keeps you from supplementing your own pension saving - but both require folks to contribute part of their earnings into a mandatory account.
See.. if "we" as a govmint were fine with having folks dying in unheated mobile homes or tents.. we'd have no problem with all of this...
we'd just do what a lot of 3rd world countries do.. right?
so our problem is ...that we're a bit too "sqeamish" to actually carry out as national policy what we say is more fair that taking money form those that did plan ahead to give to those that did not.
wrong?